How Safe Are We Really? – A Look at the 2016 Crime Statistics
Whenever eventful twists occurred over the past year, it was claimed that the number of crimes in Germany had decreased – a claim that should provoke some reflection. However, upon closer examination of the recently published statistics for Bavaria and Germany for the year 2016, a more nuanced picture emerges. In Bavaria, where the crime reporting rate increased by 3.4%, particularly in the urban centers of Munich and Upper Bavaria, reality speaks a different language: In the Bavarian capital, Munich, the crime rate even rose by a significant 9%.
The narrative of isolated incidents, which was invoked with every act of violence, whether minor, severe, particularly dangerous, or even fatal, falls apart upon closer scrutiny. Violent crimes in Bavaria increased by a whole 9.8%, and violent crimes committed by immigrants saw a frightening increase of 93%. While there were certain decreases in pure theft offenses, the overall trend is anything but reassuring. The assertion that, on average, only 10% of crimes can be attributed to immigrants might seem relativizing at first glance. However, when this figure is put into context with population density, a disturbing finding is revealed.
The reasons for this increase in violent crimes are manifold and require deeper analysis. The fact that a large part of immigrants consists of single, young men is not insignificant. From a sociocultural and criminological perspective, men generally tend to have a higher propensity for violence than women; this is particularly true for young men between 20 and 30 years old, who are considered especially susceptible to committing crimes within this age group. This predictability stems from the demographic composition of immigrants coming from North Africa and the associated socioeconomic consequences.
Also particularly alarming is the 53% increase in suspected immigrants compared to the previous year, as well as the fact that over 31% of these suspects reoffended. This phenomenon can be explained by numerous sociological theories and scientific studies that show how precarious living conditions and social disintegration can facilitate crime.
A completely different field of crime that saw significant growth rates is cybercrime. In this area, immigrants play a negligible role, which is not further mentioned in the special investigations of suspected immigrants. Instead, cybercrime encompasses those crimes directed against data networks, information technology systems, or their data, or committed using this information technology. According to the definition in the 2015 Federal Situation Report on Cybercrime, these increased by 3.6% compared to the previous year.
However, the exact development of these crimes is difficult to determine, as the representations regarding fraud and computer crimes have become more differentiated. Nonetheless, the increase in cybercrime from 70,638 to 107,751 cases cannot be attributed solely to statistical adjustments. Particularly notable is the growth in the areas of “spying out and intercepting data” as well as “altering data and computer sabotage” and other areas of ICT crime. Here, the number of crimes rose from 45,793 to 82,649 cases.
Compounding the issue is the vast dark figure in this area, where victims often remain unaware of their victimization. For example, the establishment of a botnet often goes undetected and merely represents a precursor to further offenses like DDoS attacks or click fraud. These “zombie computer” networks are now even offered as a service, while mobile devices and the “Internet of Things” increasingly become both targets and tools of these crimes. Users still lack the awareness that even household appliances can serve as attack points for phishing or ransomware.
At the end of the 2015 Federal Situation Report on Cybercrime, the Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) predicts an increasing relevance of internet crime. Although the total number of crimes appears to be decreasing, the quality of offenses is increasing, and the resulting financial damages are rising disproportionately. This illustrates the urgent need for IT experts in the military and BND, thus emphatically confirming the threat situation for the state and economy. A simple “computer man” cannot provide sufficient protection – neither preventively nor in damage control.
